For more than 15 years, three men have dominated men’s tennis in a golden era for the sport. Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have won a remarkable 56 grand slam titles between them, from 2003 until now.
To put that number into perspective, it is more than Sampras, Borg, Agassi, Lendl, McEnroe and Becker won combined. Furthermore, since Nadal won his maiden French Open in 2005, only 7 men have won a grand slam, compared to 24 on the women’s side.
But with the postponement of all tennis tour’s until at least July and very likely a lot longer, it presents a huge opportunity for the next generation of players to finally take the reign from the ‘big 3’.
Here are some reasons why this trio may still control men’s tennis, or how the break will be an advocate for a changing of the guard.
Reasons why the ‘big 3’ will still dominate the sport after the hiatus:
At the end of 2016, it seemed as though an incredible career was slowly beginning to come to an end for the 35-year-old Federer.
He had won just 1 grand slam since the 2010 Australian Open, and was coming off a 2016 season where he did not win a title. Despite issues with injuries causing him to only play seven tournaments, it was the first time Federer had gone a season without a title since 2000.
Going into the 2017 Australian Open, the Swiss was seeded 17th, his lowest at a grand slam in more than 14 years.
Yet, against all odds, Federer made his way to the final defeating two top 5 ranked players, where he met Rafael Nadal.
The Spaniard was also in the biggest slump of his coveted career, though a slump for him would be a strong period for most players, where he had failed to reach the semi-finals at 8 consecutive grand slams.
And after winning a major each year between 2005 and 2014, Nadal had not been able to replicate that success in 2015 or 2016, even falling short at the French Open.
He too entered the 2017 Australia Open seeded at an unfamiliar 9.
Federer triumphed on the day, but the match was a turning point for both, who went on to win the next 5 grand slams between them, proving to the tennis world just how incredible they have been for the sport.
For Djokovic, his consistent level dropped for the first time in almost a decade during the 2017 and 2018 seasons.
In 2015 and carrying through to 2016, Djokovic was playing the best tennis of his career, with two tight finals against Stan Wawrinka at Roland Garros in 2015 and then the US Open in 2016, preventing him from winning 7 major titles.
At the end of the 2016 season, the Serbian lost the number one ranking for the first time in almost 28 months. He went on a to have a tough year in 2017, not winning a slam and missing the back half of the season with injury. This continued into 2018 where Djokovic lost to unseeded players at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros, falling out of the ATP top 20.
Yet, like Federer and Nadal, Djokovic bounced back, winning 5 of the next 7 grand slams to bring his total to 17, closing in on Federer and Nadal.
The current circumstances are vastly different, but who is to say that Federer won’t come out with one last burst, and Nadal and Djokovic won’t resume control once again.
There are many great tennis players and sports stars in general who possess skill combined with qualities like drive, focus, and discipline.
However, there is one particular attribute that separates the greats from the legends, that divides the likes of Jordan, Ali, Brady, Graf, Bolt, Nicklaus and Phelps from the rest.
It is the want to keep on winning even once they have already reached the peak of the sport and could easily take their foot off the pedal.
The same mindset is held by Federer, Nadal and Djokovic.
Despite having all won 15+ majors and broken a range of other tennis records, these three men continue to strive for more success, as if they are attempting to win something for the first time.
It is this mentality that is preventing the next generation from taking the reign off the ‘big 3’. It seems as though Federer, Nadal and Djokovic will have to be forced out of the sport or overthrown, if you like, in order for a changing of the guard to occur.
Many players sitting in the ATP top 30 have shown signs of being able to compete with the ‘big 3’, but none have done it consistently enough, especially at grand slams. Over recent years, the four stand-out next-gen players, Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas and Medvedev have established themselves as the most likely candidates to dethrone the ‘big 3’. Yet, this celebrated trio has rarely allowed the future stars to defeat them and when they do, the other two are almost always there to avenge them.
For Federer, the four men mentioned above actually hold an 11-10 lead over the 20-time grand slam champion, but with the Swiss set to turn 39 before the next scheduled major, it seems more likely they they will have to beat Nadal and Djokovic, possibly as well as Federer, to win a major.
Djokovic has also had his battles against the up and comers but maintains a 17-10 lead over the four.
Nadal has appeared to be the toughest matchup for his eventual successors, holding a substantial 22-7 record, including an 8-1 lead at grand slams.
For the victories that Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas and Medvedev have had against the ‘big 3’, they have not yet been able to string two or three together, to finally achieve tennis’ highest honour, being a grand slam title.
Some other notable records against the ‘big 3’: (denotes current ranking)
In recent years, it has become known that to win a grand slam, you will need to beat at least one, but usually two of the ‘big 3’, a task only very few have been able to achieve.
Reasons why the ‘big 3’ could be overthrown:
For all the players on the tour looking to break through and take control of men’s tennis from Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, there is no better time to get themselves in perfect shape than right now. Despite that many players may not have access to a court during lockdown, it is a vital time to get themselves in peak physical shape, whether it be through running, gym work or other exercise so theyare ready to go when the tour does resume.
More importantly, with the ample spare time players have on their hands, they must focus on getting their minds in the right place, as tennis is just as much mental as it is physical. When two players step onto a court they are engaging in a psychological battle, so whether it be instilling the belief they can win or learning to stay calm under pressure, this time provides an extensive opportunity that will not come around again and therefore must be maximised.
For the likes of Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Domenic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas, they have all been able to beat or compete with the ‘big 3’ at different stages yet have never strung it all together at one grand slam. As of right now, the talent and quality is there for all four men and possibly more on the tour, but the mental side of the sport is still what separates the ‘big 3’ from the next generation of grand slam champions.
All four of the men mentioned above have shown promising signs on the tour, yet unbelievably, the fact remains that there is not one man currently under the age of 31, who has one a grand slam.
For 22-year-old Alexander Zverev, in his young career, he has won three masters 1000 titles being the only active player outside the ‘big four’ (including Andy Murray) to do so. At the 2018 ATP Finals, the German showed the most promising signs we have seen by the next generation of players when he defeated both Federer and Djokovic on his way to the crown.
For Domenic Thiem, the 26-year-old has shown the most promise at grand slams, making 3 finals over the past 3 years. He has reached the quarter-finals stage of a slam on 6 occasions, but has fallen to either Nadal or Djokovic, each time. If not for Nadal’s incredible ability to win on clay, Thiemwould have won multiple slams by now, having proved himself on the Parisian dirt, making the last two finals. He also recently had the best tournament run of his career at the 2020 Australian Open, getting the better of Nadal and losing a tight final to Djokovic, after holding a two-sets to one lead.
For Medvedev, he made a name for himself in the second half of 2019, winning back to back masters 1000 titles, and making a US Open final where he lost an intense five setter to Nadal.
Tsitsipas also had a strong 2019 campaign, with his biggest feats being a shock win over Federer at the Australian Open and taking out the end of year ATP finals.
There are definitely more players capable of winning a major, from Kyrgios who holds a 5-5 record against Nadal and Djokovic, to the likes of Deminaur, Khachanov, Shapovalov, Fritz and Auger-Aliassime.
Lastly, age will obviously be a factor that could cause a changing of the guard, especially with the current unknown surrounding the tennis tour. Considering the likelihood that no tennis may be played for the rest of 2020, and possibly into next year, Federer especially, as well as Djokovic and Nadal, will be entering their mid to late 30’s. By the beginning of 2021, Federer would be 39, Nadal 34 and Djokovic 33, with many younger players just entering their prime years.
For Federer, he will get one last shot at another Wimbledon title before he enters his 40’s, and wouldn’t it be the fairy tale of all fairy tales.
And with many sportsmen like Lebron, Brady and Federer playing at such a high level deep into their 30’s, there is no reason why Djokovic and Nadal couldn’t do the same. The main fear would have to be the potential of injuries, and also the fact that only three men in history have won a grand slam after turning 34, being Ken Rosewall, Andres Gimeno and Roger Federer.
Verdict:
Assuming the tour resumes at the beginning of 2021, I believe that despite some time for rest, it seems improbable for Federer to win another major. Yet, the Federer that tennis fans have come to know and love, will no doubt go around one last time, and the tennis world would pay to see a fairy tale finish, that his illustrious career deserves.
Personally, I can see Nadal winning one more French Open with Thiem already making it hard for him, and ending on 20, with Federer.
For Novak, he is still the world’s best player and should remain there for another couple of years. I believe he will win a few more majors and for the sake of the ‘big 3’s’ legacy, it would be fitting for him to finish on 20 as well.
If not the ‘big 3’, then who?
As of now it is still so hard to say, but if I had to pick, I would go with Domenic Thiem, given he hasnow proven himself on both clay and hard courts.
In truth, there are many players who could become the next ‘big thing’, stretching right down to someone like 16-year-old Carlos Alcaraz, with the men’s game set to become completely wide open at some point in the next few years.
So, if anything, when the tour does resume, make the most of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, because I think it is safe to say we will never see an era like this, again.