Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have won 57 of the past 69 grand slams.
One word – domination, and they have shown no signs of slowing down.
Many assumed the drop off of Djokovic, Federer and Nadal would happen a lot sooner.
Despite Federer’s layoff due to his age, he is still ranked World No. 5, a tremendous effort highlighting his continued dominance over the years.
In 2017, the ATP realised the big three weren’t hanging up the racquets any time soon. Subsequently, the tour launched the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan. The tournament was designed so that players “could test their skills against the best talents in their age group.” But more than that, it is also a means for the ATP to show fans that a new generation is coming and that a changing of guard is looming.
Despite breakthroughs here and there, we are yet to fully observe that change of guard.
For the past four years, everyone has thought to themselves ‘next year is the year a new generation of men’s stars will breakthrough,’ but we haven’t seen it quite yet. With Grigor Dimitrov, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev crowned the last four respective ATP Finals champions, it looked like the transition to the domination by next gen’s stars was imminent.
But over the years, the big three have continued to monopolise the rankings and win the Grand Slams.
Yes, Dominic Thiem fought off Alexander Zverev in five sets to win the U.S. Open. It was a great start to solidify a new era, but deep down most tennis fans were left wondering if Thiem would’ve still been crowned the champion of New York if Djokovic was never disqualified.
With the ‘big three’ still controlling the rankings (Djokovic World No. 1, Nadal World No. 2, Federer World No.5), what will it take for the new era of players to breakthrough?
Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev and Andrey Rublev are all stars. They’ve got time on their side as they are all 24-years-old or younger. But along with 27-year-old Thiem, they can’t afford to wait much longer.
Their time is now.
They all have plenty of Grand Slam experience in regard to best of five sets match play, meaning there is no excuse to not be able to compete at a high level and challenge for the titles at the majors.
We know the younger players have the skill to match the big three, and now with enough experience on tour level, they should all be able to go deep into the second week of Grand Slams.
Furthermore, in 2021, the effects of COVID-19 will disrupt all the players’ preparations. The older a player gets, the more preparation necessary. This will benefit the younger generation as their bodies are more equipped to handle the stress of hotel room confinement and tournament bubbles.
The Australian Open will be the first test of this, as players will be limited to their hotel rooms for 14 days in the lead up. We will look to see how this affects players on court – and my bet is that it will benefit the younger generation.
Yes - Djokovic, Nadal and even Federer will still win titles in 2021, but not like what we have previously known. With age not on their side, as well as COVID-19 playing a major factor, my tip is 2021 will be the changing of guard.
With Thiem knowing what it takes to win a Slam, Medvedev and Rublev being the fierce competitors they are, Zverev only one set away from winning a slam and Tsitsipas counting to rise up the rankings, the future of tennis is in good hands.
2021 is the year we see change – and my bet is that it will occur in this year’s Australian Summer of Tennis.