Breakdown of what must go de Minaur's way to secure protected top eight seed at the US Open

(Getty/Matthew Stockman)

After experiencing a shock second round exit at the Cincinnati Masters, Alex de Minaur will be praying that two players don't make a deep run to flatten his hopes of a US Open top eight seed.

The Aussie was on a good run of form during the North American swing, having clinched his 10th ATP title in Washington before reaching the quarter-finals of the Toronto Masters last week.

Prior to his round of 64 clash against big-serving American Reilly Opelka in Cincinnati, 'Demon' dominated the head-to-head 5-0, with his opponent winning two sets out of a possible 12.

However, world No.73 Opelka threw previous history out the window to record an eye-opening 7-6(6), 6-4 win.

De Minaur skipped last year's edition due to a hip injury he suffered at Wimbledon, so a golden opportunity has passed by to gain points in a window where he wasn't required to defend any points.

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It leaves de Minaur vulnerable to relinquishing an all-important top-eight seed at the US Open later this month, as it could be the difference between facing top players such as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in the fourth round or the quarter-finals.

Although unlikely, there is still a slim chance that de Minaur could leave the world's top eight before the final Grand Slam of the year.

The current ATP live rankings as of August 12, 2025.

Cincinnati full points breakdown:

First round: 10 points

Second round: 30 points (players with byes receive 10 points)

Third round: 50 points

Round of 16: 100 points

Quarter-finalists: 200 points

Semi-finalists: 400 points

Runner-up: 650 points

Champion: 1,000 points

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For de Minaur to lose his top eight ranking, two-time major semi-finalist Karen Khachanov has to reach the final at a minimum, whereas former world No.4 Holger Rune is required to win the tournament.

Khachanov, who has one Masters crown to his name after defeating Novak Djokovic in Paris seven years ago, reached the final in Toronto last week, where he fell short against Ben Shelton.

Meanwhile, Rune, who also toppled Djokovic to win the Paris Masters in 2022, is currently defending 400 ranking points, having bowed out at the semi-final stage in Cincinnati last year.

The 22-year-old Dane is projected to face defending champion Sinner in the last four, with Alcaraz looming as a potential semi-final opponent for Khachanov.

The top 32 seeds for the men's and women's US Open draws are scheduled to be released on August 18.

The US Open main draw commences on August 25.

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