Can 16 US Open men's qualifiers and some lucky losers continue their momentum in the main draw?

(Getty/Matthew Stockman)

At the 2025 US Open, as at all Majors, 16 men out of 128 advanced through qualifying to earn a spot in the main draw.

For the most part, being in qualifying means a player wasn't ranked sufficiently high to gain direct entry into the main draw. This means most qualifiers do not progress deep in the tournament – and it therefore makes it all the more special on the rare occasions that they do.

Let's look now at this year's 16 men's singles qualifiers and rate their chances of starting a memorable run...

Qualifier: Francesco Passaro (rank: 121, highest rank: 89)

Opponent: Flavio Cobolli (seed: 24)

Clay specialist Passaro has again demonstrated how well-equipped he is to navigate qualifying for Slams on other surfaces, having also made the Australian Open main draw back in January – though his compatriot Cobolli has only fallen at this stage in one of the four Slams where he has been seeded. Few observers would harbour the slightest doubt as to his progression here.

Chance of qualifier victory: Not likely

Qualifier: Federico Agustín Gómez (rank: 206, highest rank: 133)

Opponent: Jack Draper (seed: 5)

The 28-year-old Argentine battled through qualifying to make his debut at Flushing Meadows – his maiden major came as a lucky loser at Roland Garros – although his tour-level experience is limited to a mere six matches. British No.1 Draper went beyond the mere pragmatic during his run to the semi-finals a year ago, administering a pasting to multiple opponents; this could end in similar fashion.

Chance of qualifier victory: Not happening

Qualifier: Coleman Wong (rank: 174, highest rank: 128)

Opponent: Aleksandar Kovacevic (rank: 71)

21-year-old Wong arrives at his first major, and in doing so, ends a 71-year absence from majors for Hong Kong players. His American opponent has been quietly rising up the ranks, with an indoor and outdoor hard court final at both tour and Challenger level to his name this year. Whilst there is a considerable disparity in ranking between the players, one only needs to recall Wong's wins over Ben Shelton in Miami and (very recently) Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in Cincinnati for the impression that he will emerge victorious to gain credence.

Chance of qualifier victory: Moderate

Qualifier: Dino Prižmić (rank: 124, highest rank: 124)

Opponent: Andrey Rublev (seed: 15)

Gifted Croatian youngster Prižmić acquired a measure of distinction early last year by pushing ten-time champion Novak Djokovic to four sets (and four hours) at the Australian Open on his slam debut; his wait for a return to the grandest stage ended with a noteworthy win against Jason Kubler in qualifying. Attaining five straight Challenger finals will also have engendered vast momentum and confidence, though Rublev has a habit of grinding out results against lower-ranked opponents and has only exited at this stage in three of 21 slams when seeded.

Chance of qualifier victory: Not likely

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Qualifier: Leandro Riedi (rank: 436, highest rank: 117)

Opponent: Pedro Martínez (rank: 71)

Highly-rated Swiss player Riedi finally made his inaugural Grand Slam appearance at Wimbledon last month, after months of being unable to overcome either injuries or opponents. The 23-year-old is not unacquainted with the art of eliminating quality players on hard courts – as Pablo Carreño Busta and Lloyd Harris found out in Cincinnati – and his seventh tour-level event of the year sees him take on Martínez, who has only two US Open triumphs to his credit and a noticeably lower career win percentage on hard courts (41%) than on clay (57%).

Chance of qualifier victory: Could well happen

Qualifier: Shintaro Mochizuki (rank: 112, highest rank: 112)

Opponent: Hugo Gaston (rank: 125, highest rank: 58)

French left-hander Gaston has had little to celebrate in 2025, with a solitary Challenger quarter-final and a plummeting of more than 40 ranking places since the start of the year. For his part, Mochizuki has now qualified for all four majors, and with an 8-1 record against left-handers this year, one can safely assert he enters the match as favourite.

Chance of qualifier victory: On the cards

Qualifier: Zachary Svajda (rank: 143, highest rank: 102)

Qualifier: Zsombor Piros (rank: 156, highest rank: 106)

The solitary match in which both participants are qualifiers sees Svajda make his fifth main draw appearance here; a recent fifth Challenger trophy on hard courts, successes over good opposition in qualifying and the home support factor mean there is no room left for argument that he is favourite. Hungary's No.3 Piros is also worthy of emphatic extolment after reaching his maiden slam at the 13^th attempt, although losing to Svajda on clay (his best surface) last year does not augur well for his prospects.

Chance of qualifier victory: Most likely Svajda

Qualifier: Martin Damm (rank: 429, highest rank: 175)

Wild Card: Darwin Blanch (rank: 409, highest rank: 369)

A unique match-up between two left-handers who are essentially ITF players. 21-year-old Damm – whose namesake father won the men's doubles here in 2006 – made the most of a favourable qualifying draw with some sensational serving, while Blanch – whose older brother Ulises received a wild card five years ago – claimed the USTA National Boys' Championships to secure his place. Even if his credentials on paper appear relatively meagre, with just two main draw Challenger wins this year, a notable hat-trick of victories against players ranked around the 100 mark was accomplished at Winston-Salem last week, bringing the 17-year-old into wider recognition.

Chance of qualifier victory: Moderate

Qualifier: Jan-Lennard Struff (rank: 145, highest rank: 21)

Opponent: Mackenzie McDonald (rank: 102, highest rank: 37)

Much-loved veteran Struff has endured a torrid 2025, with only a twain of tour quarter-finals and a 3-14 record at 500 level or above. Nonetheless, his game was restored to its former splendour in wins over seed Félix Auger-Aliassime at Wimbledon and in-form Arthur Cazaux at qualifying here – proving he still possesses the ability to pull off underdog triumphs in important matches. The German’s 10^th US Open and 44^th Slam may also prove fruitful, considering McDonald's surprisingly poor record (two wins in seven appearances) at what ought to be his best major.

Chance of qualifier victory: Moderate

Qualifier: Ugo Blanchet (rank: 184, highest rank: 139)

Opponent: Fábián Marozsán (rank: 53, highest rank: 36)

Putative hard court specialist Blanchet inflicted the elimination of solid qualifying opponents to make his US Open debut, but his tour experience is confined to occasional qualifiers and 250-level matches; Marozsán has shown occasional hints of greatness in his career so far, and whilst he may be disappointed at making a sole tour quarter-final since January, is sure to maintain his 100 per cent record (2-0) against qualifiers in the first round of a major.

Chance of qualifier victory: Not happening

Qualifier: Jesper de Jong (rank: 80, highest rank: 79)

Opponent: Brandon Nakashima (seed: 30)

Nakashima's run to the round of 16 last year has engendered confidence that he may contrive to do much the same this time; with serve and backhand as his primary attacking components, the Californian looks set to end de Jong's hitherto faultless record (4-0) in the opening round of a Slam. Tour and Challenger finals on clay have consolidated the Dutchman's top 100 place this year, as he completes the set of having played in all four majors.

Chance of qualifier victory: A slight chance

Qualifier: Jérôme Kym (rank: 176, highest rank: 123)

Opponent: Ethan Quinn (seed: 81)

Fortified by his success on clay – a quartet of Challenger semi-finals along with a tour quarter-final at Gstaad – the talented Kym makes his Slam debut against home player Quinn, who has further distinguished himself this year by notching Masters wins over the likes of Diallo (Indian Wells), Nishioka (Toronto) and Kecmanović (Cincinnati) and leaping more than 100 places from his rank at year-start.

Chance of qualifier victory: Not likely

Qualifier: Lloyd Harris (rank: 353, highest rank: 31)

Opponent: Sebastián Báez (rank: 40)

Big-serving South African Harris made the last eight back in 2021, and has this year been exploiting the Challenger tour to accrue much-needed ranking points following significant absences through injury. He boasts an imperious record against clay specialists in hard court majors and is strongly backed to continue that here against Báez, whose overall slam results leave much to be desired (9-15) and whose recurrent weakness at dealing with big servers on hard courts was again evident against Bublik in Miami and Diallo in Cincinnati.

Chance of qualifier victory: On the cards

Qualifier: Ignacio Buse (rank: 136, highest rank: 133)

Opponent: Ben Shelton (seed: 6)

21-year-old Peruvian Buse is another slam debutant, becoming only the fourth male player from his country to play at Flushing Meadows since countryman Jaime Yzaga spectacularly took out defending champion Pete Sampras in 1994. Were Buse to prevail here, it would surely rank as a comparable upset, since Shelton has an 18-6 record in the hard court majors and recently claimed the biggest title of his career in Toronto.

Chance of qualifier victory: Not happening

Qualifier: Pablo Llamas Ruiz (rank: 355, highest rank: 131)

Opponent: Pablo Carreño Busta (rank: 113)

22-year-old Ruiz made his first acquaintance with Grand Slam tennis at Roland Garros, and dealt with a qualifying section that could be charitably described as soft, to book his place in New York. Two-time semi-finalist Pablo Carreño Busta has lost once in three encounters against qualifiers at this stage of the US Open, though that defeat came against Maxime Cressy, a serve-and-volley throwback and notoriously tricky opponent; his comfortable victories over Challenger players Galarneau and Draxl at Indian Wells and Toronto, respectively, mean the potential for a shock is minimal.

Chance of qualifier victory: Not likely

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As a result of the main draw withdrawals this week of Laslo Djere, Nick Kyrgios, Kei Nishikori and Arthur Fils, four lucky losers have also made their way into the draw.

Lucky Loser: Jaime Faria (rank: 87, highest rank: 118)

Opponent: Jaume Munar (rank: 46)

Portugal's No.2 male player has a slam qualifying record of enviable efficiency – nine wins from nine this year – as well as an improving Challenger record on hard, even though clay remains his favourite surface. His Spanish opponent’s principal talents also lie in the clay direction, and with five consecutive first-round exits at this major – two of which came at the hands of qualifiers – looks decidedly vulnerable.

Chance of a lucky loser victory: Moderate

Lucky Loser: Billy Harris (rank: 151, highest rank: 101)

Opponent: Félix Auger-Aliassime (seed: 25)

Grand Slam qualification has been a serial object of desire for battle-hardened Brit Harris, and though his eighth such campaign ended in defeat, a slice of fortune was to follow in the form of a lucky loser berth. His trio of Challenger semi-finals were all achieved in India early this year, and whilst his seeded opponent has been removed from the US Open at this stage for the last two years, there were mitigating factors in both cases.

Chance of a lucky loser victory: Not likely

Lucky Loser: James Duckworth (rank: 107, highest rank: 46)

Opponent: Tristan Boyer (wild card, rank: 114)

Australian veteran Duckworth is well-drilled in serve-forehand combinations and boasts 13 Challenger titles on hard courts (fourth on the all-time list), yet has notably few main draw wins at the US Open and fell to ostensibly beatable opposition both here and in qualifying for Cincinnati. American Boyer plays predominantly on the Challenger tour, though he has pulled off three main draw wins at hard court Masters events this year.

Chance of a lucky loser victory: Moderate

Lucky Loser: Daniel Elahi Galán (rank: 132, highest rank: 56)

Opponent: Raphaël Collignon (rank: 105)

Colombia's most successful male player of recent years has benefited from the late withdrawal of Laslo Djere to take his place in his 15th Slam main draw. Whilst some commentators may define such athletes in narrow terms ("Challenger player" etc), it is worth noting that Galán has notched up some unlikely tour wins over the years, and having defeated US Open debutant Collignon at a Challenger event in January, is highly fancied to repeat the feat here.

Chance of a lucky loser victory: On the cards

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