Stakes don't get much higher than this

Getty Images

One of two things will happen tonight in Melbourne.

Either 22-year-old Carlos Alcaraz will become the youngest man in history to complete the career slam – winning all four of tennis’ prized majors - breaking an 87-year-old record.

Or 38-year-old Novak Djokovic will become the oldest man to ever win a Grand Slam – whilst defeating the two new-era titans back-to-back - breaking a 53-year-old record.

Who wants this one more?

You’d think the answer would be the 38-year-old.

We can never count him out, but this could be Djokovic’s last chance at #25.

Fortune has been in his favour this week, with a fourth-round walkover against Jakub Mensik, before Lorenzo Musetti was forced to retire, leading him two sets to love in the quarterfinals.

But that’s not at all to say that this would be a ‘lucky’ Grand Slam title, because it does not get any tougher than beating Alcaraz and Sinner back-to-back. The rest just gives him the best chance to do it.

And then there’s Carlos Alcaraz, who says he’d rather win this Australian Open final than the other three majors in 2026.

He’s made his intention very clear that he wants to make history.

For 87 years, the youngest man to win all four tennis majors has been Don Budge, who completed the feat in 1938, at 22 years and 363 days.

Almost a century on, Alcaraz, at 22 years and 272 days, has his sights set on a record that may not be broken again for decades to come. 

Will physical conditioning impact the match?

Neither Alcaraz nor Djokovic come into this final in peak physical condition.

Alcaraz looked to be heading out of the tournament during his five-hour-and-twenty-seven minute semifinal with Alexander Zverev, after feeling his adductor region and being unable to move freely for more than an hour.

While Djokovic is coming off a four-hour-and-nine-minute clash with Sinner - the longest match he’s had to back up from since the 2021 Roland Garros semifinal (when he was just 33).

Can Djokovic find the level?

Even over the last two years, we’ve seen that Djokovic still has that level, when he really wants it.

We saw it in the 2024 Olympic final when he defeated Alcaraz to all but complete the sport of tennis.

We saw it in Melbourne last year when he took down Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. And we saw it again on Friday against Sinner.

But does he have one more in him?

Djokovic completes the career golden slam, winning the 2024 Olympic Final over Alcaraz (Getty Images)

Who handles the pressure better?

Djokovic is likely the most clutch tennis player we’ve ever seen. And Alcaraz, at 22, is on track to take that mantle.

Both have won multiple slam titles from match point down.

Alcaraz is 15-1 in his career in five-set matches. Djokovic has won 12 of his last 13 five-set matches.

If Djokovic can create big points and moments - as he did against Sinner - can he take them once again?

A match that could elevate as Alcaraz’s career goes on 

Djokovic leads the head-to-head with his two greatest rivals, Nadal and Federer. He was also able to stop each of them from winning many major titles.

With Alcaraz, he’s proved a mental challenge for the Spaniard. Djokovic leads the overall head-to-head 5-4, but the slam H2H is 2-3 Alcaraz.

And in the two major finals they’ve played before, Wimbledon 2023 and 2024, Alcaraz triumphed on each occasion.

Tonight looms as one of Djokovic’s last chances to impact the Alcaraz legacy - a man who could be chasing down his records in 10-15 years time.

Alcaraz defeats Djokovic in five sets to win the Wimbledon 2023 title (Getty Images)

For History

If Djokovic wins tonight, it becomes arguably his greatest ever achievement amid what’s already been one of the most legendary sporting careers.

A 25th major at 38 years old, surpassing anyone ever, and doing so beating Alcaraz and Sinner consecutively.

And for Alcaraz, it would be a seventh major title at 22 years old, and he’ll be the youngest man ever to complete the career slam.

He’ll also hold three of the four majors at once, and it’d be hard to argue he’s not the greatest 22-year-old man we’ve ever seen.

With history to be made either way, it's one of the higher stakes tennis matches of all time.

Let's just hope we get an all-time classic.

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