Why the foreseeable future could be the 'most barren period' in Australia's rich tennis history

Call me a glass-half-empty person in this instance, but the plight of Australian professional tennis is staring us in the face ahead of the 2026 season and not just for this year, but for possibly the next decade and more potentially.

Our longest male Grand Slam champion singles drought will go into its 24th year in 2026 (also this year marks 50 years since an Australian won our home slam) and our longest Davis Cup winning drought will go into its 23rd year. Apart from Alex de Minaur, there are no other top 10 men's prospects in sight. A top 50 group of men's players looks desolate long term. A big contingent of top 100 players looks bare as well, long into the future, and having more players who can win ATP Titles year on year seems very thin.

On the women's side, the last time we won the Billie Jean King Cup (Fed Cup) was 51 years ago. We have been runner-up 10 times since as recently as 2022. Aside from Maya Joint (potentially), there are no other top 10 prospects in sight or a big group of top 50/top 100 players for the long term.

This could be the most barren period in Australia's rich tennis history if we are measuring success on our Aussies winning majors, being in the top 100 of the sport, and having team success on the world stage.

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And that is how we should be measuring success. I don't think anyone could disagree with that. I have been around long enough to know that if you don't reach those personal benchmarks, it doesn't deem you necessarily a failure, but we want to see excellence achieved on the world stage.

Since 2020 in a tough global sport, yes we have had a decent amount of male players inside the top 100, compared to the 2008-2018 period, but what I would say is not enough players as a group consistently in the 0-50 range. It is one thing to be inside 100, but it is another to be really pressing higher towards the top echolen and being in contention to win titles.

Entering 2026, we have 71 Aussie men who have an official ATP Ranking, with six men inside the top 100, with five of those in the 50-100 range and four of them in the 70-100 range.

We have three players in the 100-120 range trying to take their place back inside 100, and then a big gap. We have an 'aged out group' of eight players who will all turn between 29 and 34 this year, who have been ranked significantly higher with their peak having come and gone.

And then we have a question mark group of six players who are in the age profile between 17-24, still to be ultimately judged, hovering between 150-750 in the world.

The next layer down in the ITF Junior Boys rankings is quite a long way back in the pack, and whilst we can't definitively pass judgment on them at this point in time, there is not a huge case for optimism.

Snapshot look into 2026 and beyond:

Alex de Minaur (7) turns 27 on February 17th, coming off his best season, 56-24 ATP

Our most accomplished male player by some margin, our only active player with a winning record on the ATP Tour (305-179) with 10 titles. Will absolutely keep his place in the top 10, but a Grand Slam title is beyond him in his prime with the calibre of players he is up against at the point end of the majors.

Alexei Popyrin (53) turns 27 on August 5th, coming off a 17-23 ATP season.

In his own words: "I think as long as my mind's up to it, then I feel like I've got the level to be where I want to be, but it’s important for me to get my mind there." This is my big concern with Popyrin observing him up close more than ever in 2025, and I think getting back to his career high of 19 will be very difficult.

Adam Walton (78) turns 27 on April 17th, coming off a 13-20 ATP year.

36-34 overall with ATP Challengers mixed in, 93-78 rankings jump by stepping up on the main tour (3-11 coming in) to 13 wins, including two top 50 scalps. There is no doubt Adam has a solid enough base to stay in the 50-100 range for another few years, but not yet convinced he can climb inside 50 in 2026 or beyond, unless he can keep adding dimensions.

Aleksandar Vukic (84) turns 30 on April 6th, coming off a 15-29 ATP year

To surpass his career high of 48 looks to be beyond Vukic now. Serve/forehand makes him more than competitive to keep his spot inside 100 this year, but he is also on the edge of dropping outside the top 100 by year's end, depending on form, fitness and the coming of age of the next pack of talent.

James Duckworth (87) turns 34 on January 21st, coming off an 8-12 ATP year

Our oldest Aussie inside 100 climbed back into double figures, finishing the year strong on the Challenger Tour. No threat to become a top 50 player again (High of 46), but still with a strong desire to compete and get the best out of himself. Could hover again just inside or just outside the top 100, or with his age profile slip well outside the top 100, depending on form and body durability.

Tristan Schoolkate (100) turns 25 on February 26th, coming off a 6-9 ATP year

Our youngest Aussie inside 100, reaching a career high 95 in 2025, making his debut in double figures for the first time. There is a lot to like about his game, going on a similar rankings build to his good mate Adam Walton, and I think he has more upside particuarly with his forward transition game. As Walton has already done, Tristan needs more exposure on the ATP Tour to see if he can elevate to the 70-80 range, but also like Walton, not convinced yet he can become a top 50 player.

Jordan Thompson (108), Rinky Hijikata (113) and Chris O'Connell (116) are all trying to take their place back inside 100, where they were in 2025. Thompson and O'Connell both turn 32 this year, with the physical side the big question mark, and very tough to see them getting back to their respective career high's of 26 and 53, while a younger Hijikata (turning 25 in Feb) who was also sidelined with injury for part of last year will need to really roll the sleeves up to get back to his career high of 62. Top 50 looks beyond him in his career.

The aged pack of Alex Bolt, Bernard Tomic, Jason Kubler, Omar Jasika, Li Tu, Marc Polmans, Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios are a long way off their career high rankings with the horse having bolted all in the turning 29-34 bracket in 2026.

The question mark group I referred to consists of Dane Sweeny (182), aged 24, James McCabe (193), aged 22, Eddie Winter (484), aged 21, Phil Sekulic (521), aged 22, Pavle Marinkov (565), aged 19 and Cruz Hewitt (735), aged 17, all still in the right age profile.

It is highly unlikely that any of this group, bar possibly one, in my view, will reach the top 100 long term, but 2026 gives us another chance to take a look.

We shouldn't be pinning our hopes on another Hewitt reaching the summit, but with the bloodlines, there is intrigue about what Cruz can become. And the very reality that, as crazy as it is to say, he appears to be our only hope on paper of Australia having a Grand Slam male champion in the foreseeable future, and right now that is almost Buckley's and none.

That is the view of inside 1000 in the rankings. Beyond that into the ITF Junior Rankings, our males are a long, long way back.

Taking a look at the women's side going into 2026, we have 50 Aussie women with a WTA Ranking, with four inside the top 100.

Maya Joint (32) turns 20 on April 16th, coming off a 52-28 season

A big 2025, breaking inside the top 100 and top 50, winning her first two WTA titles. The rise has been rapid over the last two years to become our No.1 Australian female player. Certainly a lot to love about her game. This will be a fascinating year ahead to try to consolidate her ranking, as it will only get harder from here. No ceiling in 2026 and beyond, but certainly has the potential to be a top 10 player in the future.

Daria Kasatkina (37) turns 29 on May 7th, coming off a 19-22 season

Our newest Australian, still awaiting citizenship, didn't have the 2025 she would have liked on court for a variety of reasons that are well documented, including ending her season early. The former world No.8 is in an uphill battle to reach the top 10 again, possibly the top 20, with her age profile and the calibre of players around her and breathing down her neck.

Ajla Tomljanovic (80) turns 33 on May 7th, coming off a 27-26 season

Been a fascinating career of possibly what could have been for a player with a lot of talent, who peaked at 32, around injury layoffs, making three Grand Slam quarter-finals (one at Wimbledon, where there were no ranking points, which would have elevated her inside 20). Certainly not going to reach those heights again as she fights to stay inside 100 in 2026.

Kimberly Birrell (98) turns 28 on February 9th, coming off a 39-29 season

Peaked at a career high of 60 in 2025 after a great start to the year, then dipped outside 100, where wins were hard to come by for a big chunk of the season, to just get back inside 100 after reaching the season-ending WTA 250 final in Chennai. Top 50 i think is now out of reach for Kim and likely has reached her ceiling, as she tries to cling onto a spot inside the top 100 for consecutive seasons.

Priscilla Hon at (119) had a fleeting taste of the top 100 in 2025 (CH 94) before being sidelined with injury. Turns 28 on May 10th and has the challenge again to climb back in and end the season inside. Talia Gibson, who turns 22 in June, sits at (122) - peaked at 105 in 2025, and whilst Gibson has a likeable game off the ground, she still has the task in front of her to take the next step and crack double digits. I wouldn't say that is an absolute given.

The familiar pack of Astra Sharma, Maddison Inglis, Daria Saville, Arina Rodionova, Destanee Aiava, Lizette Cabrera, Storm Hunter and Jaimee Fourlis in the 26-31 age range are all some way off their career high rankings and don't have their best tennis in front of them, with Saville set to be on maternity leave with the high chance that her tennis career could be done.

The question mark group in the right age profile are Emerson Jones (151), aged 17, Taylah Preston (195), aged 20, Tahlia Kokkinis (486), aged 17 and Alana Subasic (537), aged 18. Jones is clearly the standout who has accelerated quickly and is eager right now for success. It will be fascinating to see where she lands. Right now, she is our big homegrown hope, but still with a lot of work to do, to go from 150-100, which can be a graveyard for many players.

In a category of her own is Olivia Gadecki. Peaked at 83, but has fallen outside 200 in the space of 12 months. Still in the right age profile at 23, but I think we have all the evidence we need that getting back inside 100 will be a mighty challenge.

That is the view of inside 1000 in the rankings. In the ITF Junior Rankings, 16-year-old Renee Alame from NSW is one I am watching up to 44 in the world (117-59 record), but the rest of our females are a long, long way back.

The State of Play is something we have covered for a while on 'The First Serve Live', returning Monday February 2nd at 8pm Eastern on SEN Radio. We simply can't shy away from it. At a professional level on the world stage, we don't look like we are going to cut it on court in the foreseeable future.

The Australian Open is the show, and how fortunate we are to host one of the four majors. However, as tennis fans we want to see a production line of players exceling in the pro space.

Is it just our lot in the current tennis climate, or does the tennis ecosystem here in Australia dramatically need to lift its game? From the feedback we received in the second half of 2025, there are plenty thinking we can do things much better.

The winds of change are happening at Tennis Australia with the Board Chair having just departed, and it appears likely, as where there is smoke there is fire, that the long-time CEO will follow suit in a few weeks.

What that all means in the long term, we don't know, but while the Australian Open is the signature piece in Australian tennis, we need to raise the bar on the court to match the prestige off it, particularly in producing home-grown elite talent.

The Kooyong Classic returns to the spiritual home of Australian tennis from January 13-15, 2026.

Each year, the Kooyong Classic features the world’s best players in their final preparation for the Australian Open. 

The 2026 event will feature Lorenzo Musetti, Alexander Bublik, Nick Kyrgios, Karen Khachanov, Flavio Cobolli, Frances Tiafoe, Learner Tien, Matteo Berrettini, Hubert Hurkacz, Marin Čilić and Zhang Zhizhen, alongside Donna Vekić Priscilla Hon and a special guest appearance Daniela Hantuchová.

Tickets on sale now through www.kooyongclassic.com.au

Hospitality packages can be viewed on the Kooyong Classic website

Contact: info@kooyongclassic.com.au.