A CASE OF 'BURNT OUT' OR SOMETHING MORE? WHY TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR DE MINAUR

Alex de Minaur at the 2025 Queen's Club Championships. (Getty/Dan Istitene)

Two sets up and cruising towards a third-round berth at Roland-Garros, it was seemingly business as usual for Alex de Minaur, until it wasn't.

A tremendous upset eventuated on Court 14 when Alexander Bublik, let's be honest, played out of his mind to eliminate Australia's top hope. Just like that, the 'Demon' surrendered a near-unassailable advantage.

But how? Because remember, de Minaur doesn't usually taste defeat often against players ranked outside the top-30.

Well, the man himself offered some insightful context.

"I'm just tired…tired mentally. I'm a little bit burnt out, if anything," de Minaur admitted in his press conference, following his 2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 second-round defeat at the hands of Bublik.

"I think I lost that one. I put that down to myself. I feel like if I put in the level that I know I can, I don't lose that match.

"Looking back at my Grand Slam career, I can't think of another match where I felt this way, and I ended up losing a match that I probably by all means shouldn't have."

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Although Bublik is producing arguably the best tennis of his career after capturing his second Halle title, it was an avoidable defeat.

So, after taking a couple of weeks off to reset the mind and recharge the batteries, de Minaur returned for his first grass match this season. But instead of showing a response as he so often does, the former world No.6 won just half a dozen games in a straight-sets loss to Jiří Lehečka at the Queen's Club Championships.

For as talented and capable as Lehečka is, it was yet another shock defeat. Simply put, de Minaur rarely gets dominated when facing players whom he is expected to beat.

Is it just one of those bumps in the road? Perhaps. But the proud Aussie doesn't have room to experience too many of them.

At 26, de Minaur seems somewhat at a crossroads, and runs the real risk of falling behind a handful of the sport's up-and-coming talents.

The question has always surfaced around whether he can ever win a Grand Slam. Those same questions have become quite repetitive... 'Can he win one?', 'Is he good enough?', 'Does he have what it takes to beat the world's elite?'.

Only this time, those questions are more important than ever to ask at this stage of his career.

Jack Draper, the man who ousted de Minaur at last year's US Open quarter-finals, has just achieved a career-high world No.4. Then there's Ben Shelton, slowly maturing on the biggest of stages. Teenage sensation João Fonseca is touted as a player who can join Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in forming the next formidable 'Big Three'. Arthur Fils, Jakub Menšík and Lorenzo Musetti are now the present, no longer the future.

You see, the men's game is stacked with quality depth, and so if de Minaur begins to lose one of his core traits - consistency - those surprise losses against Bublik and Lehečka won't be all that surprising.

The door is still ajar, but for how long?

Host of The First Serve Live, Brett Phillips, offered his thoughts earlier this year regarding de Minaur's potential.

"I think there is more upside to Alex actually winning a major ahead of Draper, [Taylor] Fritz and Fils of the four Grand Slam nations who carry the four biggest trophies in the sport, who are all crying out for another men's Grand Slam champion," he said.

While that may be true, does de Minaur possess the mentality of a champion? We know he fights for every ball and portrays the never-say-die attitude that has earned him massive amounts of respect around the world, but does he genuinely believe he can win one of the sport's biggest honours?

His assessment after being dismantled by Sinner at the 2025 Australian Open quarter-finals was telling.

"It's been too many times playing him and seeing the same thing, so I'm not even surprised anymore when I face him," a deflated de Minaur said, who has failed to topple the Italian world No.1 in all 10 meetings.

"It's pretty tough right now for me to sit here after this defeat and tell you that I believe I can go all the way (and win a Slam).

"If I'm in a different side of the draw, different little section, then who knows? I genuinely think I'm going to give myself opportunities, and I don't think my peak is making quarter-finals in a Slam.

"I see other players that have made it further, have made semis, have made finals, and I do believe that I can be amongst them, right? If they have been able to accomplish that, then why not me?"

Many have argued that he isn't good enough, or that he isn't top-10 material, or that he doesn't have the weapons to trouble the likes of Sinner and Alcaraz.

And there's no doubt that de Minaur has read countless comments that have aimed to diminish his ability. Heck, he even replied to one controversial comment on X after his recent loss to Sinner.

But deep down, regardless of what anyone thinks, he hasn't yet reached his ceiling.

A tough draw awaits him due to slipping out of a top-eight seeding position, and that's an unfortunate reality for Australian fans.

Twelve months ago, de Minaur achieved his maiden quarter-final at the All England Club, but was forced to withdrew before hitting a ball after sustaining a heartbreaking injury in the round prior.

This upcoming Wimbledon campaign is the perfect opportunity to offer a much-needed response, not only to silence the critics, but also to reassure himself.

Given the context, given the competition around him, given his inconsistency as of late, this Wimbledon tournament is perhaps the most important of his career to date, and he probably hasn't realised it yet.

With his back now firmly against the wall, and with the critics and media firing away like never before, can de Minaur make a statement?

He needs to. The window continues to close.

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