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Writer's pictureConnor Joyce

AUSSIE RANKINGS OUTLOOK

 

As with every year in tennis; as one season approaches an end, the next is on the horizon.

 

With the top-flight ATP and WTA calendars winding up in November, there a few intriguing items to consider as we head into the final month of the season, with Australian Open direct entries and end-of-year finals positions up for grabs.

 

Firstly, the annual Aus Open main draw will be set six weeks in advance of the event – thus on December 2 – giving our Aussies just five weeks to secure their direct place.

 

Current Men’s Outlook:

 

As it stands, an incredible 10 Australian men could finish the season inside the top-100 – a feat not achieved since 1981.

In a strong display of consistency, the eight men who finished in last year’s top-100 have all retained their place to date (Alex de Minaur, Alexei Popyrin, Jordan Thompson, Aleks Vukic, Chris O’Connell, Rinky Hijikata, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Max Purcell).

 

Additionally, James Duckworth has returned to a double-digit ranking whilst 23-year-old Adam Walton could finish the year as a top-100 player for the first time.

 

Walton has enjoyed a strong season at ATP Challenger level, reaching the most finals of any player, including a sixth this week in Taipei, where he was runner up last night to rise back inside the top-100.

 

10 men receiving direct AO entry would create the strongest local, male contingent Melbourne has seen in decades, particularly after wildcards and possible qualifiers are added.

 

The race for wildcards will be competitive with the next group of Aussie men out of main draw contention but pushing their case for wildcard selection over the coming month.

 

This pack is led by 23-year-old Tristan Schoolkate (No.177), whose youth amongst this cohort will have him at the forefront of wildcard allocation.

 

With Tennis Australia holding five main draw wildcards, one of which could be required by a certain Nick Kyrgios (though he has likely petitioned the ATP to 'freeze' his protected ranking, allowing for a return on ranking for twelve events), form at ATP Challenger level should be rewarded with the unfortunate non-receivers headed for qualifying.

 

And whilst Australia’s male depth is as strong as ever, Popyrin and Thompson have answered our call for more Aussies in Grand Slam seeding range (top-32), joining De Minaur inside the world’s top-30.

 

And should they remain in that bracket, it would be the first time three Aussie men have finished the year in the top-30 since 2000 (Lleyton Hewitt, Mark Philippoussis, Patrick Rafter).

 

Current Women’s Outlook:


As has been the case since Ash Barty’s retirement in 2022, Australia is waiting for a marquee female player.

The live WTA top-100 features just two Aussies; talented 22-year-old Olivia Gadecki and Ajla Tomljanovic, back inside this month for the first time since her knee injury in 2022.

 

However, five locals currently sit just outside the Australian Open main draw cut-off (105-130 range) with five weeks to make a move.

 

18-year-old Maya Joint (No.108 live) headlines this group after a 60-win season has seen her skyrocket up the rankings from No.1208 just one year ago.

 

Each of these women could still earn their direct place in the AO draw but will need strong finishes to avoid the lottery that is wildcard allocation.

 

End-of-Year Finals Contention:

 

Singles:

 

Alex de Minaur is the only Australian with a live chance of reaching the ATP or WTA Finals in singles, currently placed at No.9 (top-eight finishers will compete in Turin in November).

 

With Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud marginally ahead, and Djokovic (355 points ahead) not entered into any remaining events – including this week’s Paris Masters – an opportunity presents for the Aussie to clinch his place.

 

But despite results over the coming month, De Minaur’s season – which saw him reach the second week of all four majors (and the quarterfinals of three) is set to earn him the highest end-of-year ranking by an Australian man since Lleyton Hewitt in 2005.

 

Doubles:

 

Jordan Thompson and Max Purcell have booked their spot in the ATP Finals after four titles as a pair in 2024, including the US Open.

 

Ellen Perez and Matt Ebden are also both in-line to reach the Finals with their respective partners but require a strong finish to the season to sew up their place.



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