DOES PLAYING THIS WEEK HELP OR HINDER A PLAYER'S FRENCH OPEN CHANCES?

World No.1 Jannik Sinner playing in front of his home fans at the Rome Masters. (Getty/Tullio Puglia)

It's a dilemma many players face, whether or not to play a tournament the week leading up to a Grand Slam. 

The likes of Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and Taylor Fritz are playing in Hamburg and Geneva, while Jannik Sinner and Casper Ruud both pulled out of playing this week. 

On the women's side, Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro are playing in Strasbourg, with others facing off in Rabat. 

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Doing well for these players is a great result, but it can create a tight scheduling issue.

This can become a problem, and we've certainly seen it impact players in Australia. 

However, is it a different story for the French Open?

The First Serve has examined the statistics from the last four years post-pandemic to see what they reveal. 

Title winners

On the men's side, there were eight title winners the week before Paris across the four years.

Two of them (Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2021 and Ruud in 2022) went on to make the French Open final. 

That strike rate of 25 per cent is quite impressive. 

However, it's the same percentage of title winners who lose first-round.

Arthur Fils and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard both fell in the opening round after winning titles in 2023 and 2024, respectively. 

Perhaps we can put some of that down to the pressure of performing at their home Slam. 

On the women's side, just one of the seven champions made the final, but they did win it. 

Barbora Krejčíková won Strasbourg in 2021 before taking out her maiden Slam title. 

Although she didn’t make the final, Martina Trevisan is also of note for making the 2022 French Open semi-finals unseeded after winning Rabat the week before. 

Only one champion out of the seven, Lucia Bronzetti in 2023, exited first-round. 

Other players

If we extend the records out to include all players who made the semi-finals the week before, we have more to work with. 

For the men, only five of those 31 players (one player withdrew) fell in the first-round (16 per cent), while 10 (32 per cent) reached the fourth-round and beyond, including two quarter-finalists, two semi-finalists, and two finalists. 

The record wasn't as strong on the women's side, with seven of 25 (28 per cent) falling at the first hurdle. 

However, five (25 per cent) made it to the fourth-round and beyond, including Elena Svitolina's unseeded quarter-final run two years ago.

French Open champions

Every male champion and 75 per cent of finalists since 2021 did not play the week of the French Open. 

Krejčíková was the only winner or finalist to play the week before Roland-Garros. 

Those numbers show that typically, if you want to win the French Open, you don't play the week before. 

So does it help or hinder?

Overall, it doesn't appear to hinder players too much. 

There has been a solid strike rate of players doing well and even winning, as well as making the final or semis. 

There have been some particularly good results for unseeded players carrying their form over to Roland-Garros as well. 

However, playing the week before isn't the typical route of a champion.

The vast majority of major winners and finalists at the French do not play the week prior. 

Like many things in tennis, it can come down to the individual preferences or circumstances of the player. 

It can also be influenced by what they are trying to achieve or what form they have been in.

Zverev, for example, was a late wildcard announcement for Hamburg this week. 

Despite his Munich win, he has had a number of early losses this European clay court season. He may have wanted some more matches and/or confidence heading into Paris. 

While Sinner, who was due to play Hamburg, may feel his run to the Rome final was enough after his lengthy time off court. 

We'll find out over the next two weeks if their and other players' choices hurt or hinder their French Open chances. 

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