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WILL PLAYING THE OLYMPICS HURT A PLAYER'S US OPEN CHANCES?

Writer's picture: Dale RobertsDale Roberts


With the Paris Olympics about to begin, the usual debates on the inclusion of tennis surface. 


Does the sport belong? Should there be points? Do the players care?


With a strong lineup on both the men's and women’s side of the draw in Paris, there’s no doubt this is something most players aspire to. 


However, not every top player will be in France. Many have chosen to skip the event to focus on the upcoming hard-court season and the US Open. 


Some have referenced swapping from grass to clay to hard in such a short time frame for the reason, with Ons Jabeur saying:


“The quick change of surface and the body's adaption required would put my knee at risk and jeopardize the rest of my season."


Ons joins other top players including Aryna Sabalenka, Madison Keys, Daria Kasatkina, and Victoria Azarenka in missing the Games. 


There are complications for the Russian and Belarussian players as they would need to compete as individual neutral athletes. 


This also applies to Andrei Rublev on the men’s side, however Frances Tiafoe, Sebastian Korda, Ben Shelton, and Grigor Dimitrov are all skipping Paris for different reasons. 


It’s something we’ve seen impact Australian tennis over the years. Jordan Thompson chose to skip the Games this year while Nick Kyrgios had an infamous feud in 2016 which saw him miss Rio and even Lleyton Hewitt didn’t compete in Athens to focus on the US Open back in 2004. 


So, does skipping the Olympics give an advantage at the US Open?


Will players who compete in Paris be disadvantaged in New York come September? 


We’ve looked at the last three times the Olympics have been held to see how this stacks up.


US Open champions


Out of the six US Open champions in Olympic years, four of the players competed at the Games.


In 2012, Andy Murray and Serena Williams won both the Olympics and the US Open despite being played on different surfaces. 


2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev made the Olympic quarters that year and 2016 champion Angelique Kerber was a silver medalist in Rio. 


Emma Raducanu in 2021 and Stan Wawrinka in 2016 are the only players who didn’t play in the Olympics beforehand. 


In the case of Stan, he withdrew from Rio due to a back injury while Emma wasn’t eligible to play in Tokyo.


US Open finalists


Five of the six US Open finalists also played the Olympics beforehand. 


On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic was runner-up at the US Open in 2012, 2016, and 2021 after playing in the Olympics. 


Notably, his 2021 loss stopped him from winning a calendar year Grand Slam. 


On the women’s side, Victoria Azarenka backed up her bronze in London with a final in New York and Leylah Fernandez played Tokyo before her remarkable run in 2021. 


Karolina Pliskova was the only finalist not to play in the Olympics before success in New York.


This was one of only two career slam finals for Karolina and she also won her biggest title, Cincinnati in the build-up that year. It is something she said was partly due to missing the Games. 


Semi-finalists and quarter-finalists


All 12 US Open losing semi-finalists played in the Olympics before their success in New York. 


Alexander Zverev backed up his 2021 gold medal with a US Open semi-final appearance.


2012 silver-medalist Maria Sharapova and 2016 bronze-medalist Kei Nishikori also did the same.


When it comes to US Open losing quarter-finalists, the high correlation rate drops with only sixteen of twenty-four (67%) competing in the Games beforehand. 


This was particularly evident in 2021 when all four on the men’s side did not play the Tokyo Olympics. 


Does winning a medal help or hinder US Open chances?


One in six medalists go on to win the US Open (Murray 2012, Williams 2012, Kerber 2016) while two-thirds go on to make at least the quarter-finals. 


However, three medalists have fallen first round when backing up in New York.


These were: surprise 2016 gold medalist Monica Puig, 2021 silver medalist Karen Khachanov, and 2021 bronze medalist Pablo Carreno-Busta. 


So, if you win an Olympic medal you have just as much chance of winning the US Open as you do losing in the first round. 


Where does that leave us?


Ultimately, with 88% (21 of 24) of US Open semi-finalists in the last three Olympic years playing in the Games, it’s clear that for top players it doesn’t hurt your chances. 


In addition, the only recent Olympics not played on hard court saw players win both titles and see all medalists do well at the US Open. 


The high correlations of success may be because these top players are more adept at backing up at major events and are used to heavy schedules. 


For some of the less elite players, a big Olympics could impact their chances in New York (Puig, Carreno Busta) while skipping it to focus on the US Open could improve their chances (Raducanu, Pliskova). 


In addition, for those with niggling injuries, resting can also help, as seen with Stan Wawrinka winning his second Grand Slam in 2016. 


So, ultimately, it can come down to individual circumstances but overall, playing the Olympic Games should not hinder success at the US Open.


Will that conclusion stack up at the pointy end of New York in September? 


Only time will tell.

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